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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from American administration follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.