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A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."