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Back in 2018, a mere eight words to electrify the party's annual gathering demonstrating the party was falling out of love with its then leader. Although not precisely soaring oratory, the phrase met with rapturous applause as most of the hall rose in an impromptu ovation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.

During that darkly divisive time of 2018, straying from the prepared script like this was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in working-class seats above the Europhile sentiments of his party. With that single address, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he would later replace.

The Evolution in Position & Closed Debates

In the years since, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue was resolved by the previous year’s national vote. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, despite survey data indicates a significant number have died or changed their minds.

A Lid That Rattles on the EU

However, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled party leader. While EU relations may not be the central crisis in UK politics, a lid that has been kept tightly sealed for five years is beginning to rattle once more.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and is still his sole political accomplishment.

And yet, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has resulted in an economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the micro-mitigation so far offered by the government. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset negotiated with the EU in 2024 provides gains quantified in fractions of a percent.

Cabinet Divergence & Bolder Ideas

Rachel Reeves is among those trying to overcome entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme allowing youths can travel between the UK and the EU to study or work.

The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly about the “self-evident” benefits of being in an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, last week supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

While Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees UK-EU relations, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, maintains the firm boundaries are still in place, there are ways to work around them. A proposal involves declaring the commencement of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the next manifesto, with implementation only if Labour won a new electoral mandate.

The Prime Minister's Fundamental Doubts

However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water on the idea by warning rejoining a European customs area could undermine the trade pacts with America, which he views as key accomplishments of his government.

It is understood that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, stemming from three further factors.

1. First, he thinks a customs pact has been made significantly more difficult as ministers are busily de-aligning from European rules in numerous sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost set for the UK for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has convinced British officials that former EU partners are less interested in offering favorable terms to the UK and are more focused on proving that Brexit does not work.
3. Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by the Kremlin, is seen by key advisors in Number 10 as a reason for the UK to keep its distance from Europe.

A Bizarre Strategy & Geopolitical Considerations

This strange and concerning document asserts Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” due to Muslim migration. It includes a single mention to Britain, found on a proposal that the US government will intervene in British politics to foster the rise of nationalist movements.

However, instead of deciding that this renders America an undependable ally, ministers is worried that aligning closer with Europe would destabilise geopolitics further by risking precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Leadership Speculation & The Echo from the Past

All of which returns us to 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not a pitch to become leader but simply an attempt to preserve the possibility of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. Indeed, back then, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within Downing Street have noticed that the Health Secretary, widely considered would be a candidate for the leadership, is among a group of senior ministers letting it be known they want to go further regarding the EU.

Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a contest to replace Starmer, insist she won’t discuss her stance regarding a customs pact as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Danger and A Wise Memory

The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be prudent for Starmer to recall the impact just a few words had for him in 2018. Potential pathways for a big offer on EU relations that the prime minister ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.